Craft beer segment drops again as wholesalers stay cautious heading into the holidays
The National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA) released its Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) for October 2025, and the results show little change from late summer. The overall BPI reading of 24 remains deep in contraction territory, following similar results in September and August. NBWA’s at-risk inventory measure — which tracks product at risk of expiring — ticked up from 48 to 51, pushing above the benchmark and signaling ongoing supply imbalance. Together, the data points to a sluggish beer market heading into Q4.
Barf: Craft stays near record lows
The craft segment index fell to 14, down two points from September and 11 points below October 2024. That marks one of the lowest readings for craft this year and underscores limited distributor ordering for independent breweries. Distributors continue to move cautiously, keeping inventories lean and focusing on faster-turning categories. Craft’s weak performance contrasts sharply with the modest gains seen in other areas like imports and cider.
Segment snapshot: October 2025
- The imports index at 43 is 14-points lower than October 2024 and six points higher than September 2025.
- The craft index at 14 is 11-points lower than October 2024 and two points lower than September 2025.
- The premium lights index at 33 is eight points lower than October 2024 and even with September 2025.
- The premium regular index at 34 is even with both October 2024 and with last month’s September 2025 reading.
- The below premium index at 40 is 14-points lower than October 2024 and three points lower than September 2025.
- The FMB/seltzer index at 35 is three points lower than October 2024 and eight points lower than September 2025.
- The cider segment at 36 is seven points higher than October 2024 and even with September 2025.
Overall, the readings remain well below 50 — the line dividing expansion from contraction.
Comparing the BPI to broader industry data
The October BPI confirms what other industry trackers have reported throughout 2025: beer sales remain sluggish.
- Beer Institute: August taxable removals dropped 9.4% year over year, signaling weaker shipments from brewers to wholesalers.
- BeerBoard: Draft beer volume declined 1.8% in Q3, while packaged units fell 5.1%.
- CGA by NIQ: Draft beer’s share of on-premise volume rose slightly, but total beer consumption stayed flat.
Together, the data suggests that while draft is slowly rebounding in bars and restaurants, overall consumer demand — especially for higher-priced craft beer — continues to soften.
What it means for independent brewers
The October numbers show distributors still reluctant to expand craft placements. With the craft index sitting at 14, wholesalers are signaling tight inventory control and limited appetite for new SKUs. Independent brewers should continue prioritizing direct-to-consumer sales, local partnerships, and production discipline. Taprooms and brewpubs remain the most reliable channels to offset slower distribution orders. Historically, the holiday season provides a modest lift in beer demand. But with the BPI now entrenched below 30 and taxable removals down nearly 6% year to date, expectations for a strong Q4 remain low. If current trends persist, 2025 could mark the third straight year of volume decline across the U.S. beer market — leaving craft brewers focused on stability, efficiency, and reconnecting with drinkers one pint at a time.
