The Beer Institute’s June 2025 Taxable Removals Estimate shows a rare positive note for U.S. beer shipments this year. Domestic brewers removed 14.4 million barrels for consumption in June, up 0.3% compared to June 2024’s 14.35 million barrels. This modest gain breaks a streak of consecutive year-over-year monthly declines in 2025. However, year-to-date totals remain well below last year’s pace. Sad trombone.
Year-to-date volumes still in the red
Through the first six months of 2025, taxable removals total 72.59 million barrels. That’s a 5.2% drop — or nearly 4 million fewer barrels — compared to the same period in 2024. Only one months in 2025 has posted year-over-year gains: June (+0.3%). According to the Beer Institute, March was predicted to post 0.7% gain, but in this latest report March has dropped to -1.5%, so who knows if June’s growth will be actualized. Every other month saw declines ranging from -1.5% to -16.4%.
Monthly trend in 2025
- January: 10.56 million barrels, -8.7% YoY
- February: 10.13 million barrels, -16.4% YoY
- March: 12.28 million barrels, -1.5% YoY
- April: 12.01 million barrels, -3.8% YoY
- May: 13.20 million barrels, -2.6% YoY
- June: 14.40 million barrels, +0.3% YoY
The July 2025 estimate is scheduled for release on September 4.
What this means for craft brewers
The taxable removals data reflects overall beer industry shipments and serves as a broad demand indicator. For independent breweries, several takeaways stand out:
Industry demand remains soft
Even with June’s slight bump, the 2025 market remains in contraction. This signals continued pressure on beer sales across all segments.
Production planning needs precision
Lower national volumes suggest slower sales velocity. Craft brewers may want to adjust production schedules to avoid overstocking core brands.
Benchmark against the industry
Comparing brewery-specific shipment changes to national trends can help identify whether a slowdown is market-wide or brand-specific.
Expect cautious distributor buying
Distributors may scale orders conservatively given the overall decline. Data like this can help frame conversations about inventory levels.
Diversification could help
Slower demand for traditional beer styles may push breweries to explore non-alcoholic, seasonal, or specialty releases to sustain momentum.
