The National Beer Wholesalers Association’s Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) for November 2025 shows another month of weak distributor demand across the beer category. The overall BPI landed at 25, up only one point from October. Readings below 50 signal contraction, and the latest results continue a trend that has defined most of 2025. Craft again posted one of the lowest scores among all segments. Cider was the lone bright spot, posting its strongest reading in five years. Here’s what the November results tell us — and how they compare with the past several months of data.
November continues a long stretch of contraction
A BPI of 25 signals deep caution among wholesalers. Distributors are ordering less beer than they did last year and are carrying at-risk inventory at levels that suggest poor sell-through. The at-risk measure reached 55 in November, well above the neutral threshold. That pairing — low BPI and elevated at-risk inventory — reinforces a sluggish Q4.
Craft holds at 15 as demand stays weak
Craft’s November reading of 15 is three points lower than November 2024. It is only one point better than October’s 14, one of the lowest readings of the year. This result continues a pattern:
- October craft index: 14
- September craft index: 16
- June craft index: 15
- February craft index: 17
Craft has spent almost the entire year in the teens. That level signals sustained contraction and limited distributor interest in new placements or larger orders.
Cider posts a rare gain
Cider hit 41 in November, up five points year over year and up five points from October. That’s the first time cider has crossed 40 since 2020. Cider now shows the most resilience of any beer-adjacent segment in the BPI. Several earlier reports hinted at this momentum:
- Cider scored 36 in October
- Cider reached 38 in July
- Cider held 33 in June
These small gains now appear to form a trend.
Other segments continue to soften
Most categories tracked by BPI show a consistent downward arc:
- The imports index at 42 is 22-points lower than November 2024 and one point lower than October 2025.
- The premium lights index at 22 is 24-points lower than November 2024 and 11-points lower than October 2025.
- The premium regular index at 23 is 18-points lower than November 2024 and 11-points lower than October 2025.
- The below premium index at 37 is 13-points lower than November 2024 and three points lower than October 2025.
- The FMB/seltzer index at 32 is two points lower than November 2024 and three points lower than October 2025
The declines mirror volume data from the Beer Institute. Through August, taxable removals were down 5.7% year to date. That slowdown set the tone for the fall selling months.
What November signals for craft beer
The data suggests that brewer optimism for late-year recovery should remain low. Craft continues to sit at the bottom of the BPI compared to every other category. Wholesale demand remains restricted, and distributors continue to focus on faster-turning imports, cider, and value products. Independent breweries should expect:
- Leaner distributor inventory
- Fewer new placements
- Smaller reorders
- Heightened price sensitivity
- Greater reliance on direct-to-consumer channels
Most of these dynamics have shaped 2025, and the November BPI confirms they remain in place.
What this means entering 2026
With 2025 showing three straight years of volume decline, the craft segment faces real headwinds heading into the new year. November’s BPI offers no early signal of a turnaround. Distributors remain cautious. Retailers remain selective. Consumers remain price conscious. Craft breweries that lean into efficiency, tight portfolios, and local loyalty will be best positioned to navigate the months ahead. Craft Brewing Business will continue tracking BPI results and other demand indicators as the industry approaches 2026.
