The Brewers Association’s 2025 Midyear Report shows an industry still facing strong headwinds. Yet, pockets of growth remain — especially for the smallest on-site brewers. As of June 2025, 9,269 craft breweries were operating in the U.S. — down 1% from a year ago. Closures continue to outpace openings, led by a 3% decline in microbreweries. Taprooms dipped 1%, while brewpub and regional brewery counts remained flat. Craft beer volume also shrank. The BA estimates a 5% year-over-year decline in production. Distribution-focused breweries were hit hardest, while taprooms and brewpubs performed slightly better — outpacing their distribution peers by 1 to 2 points in the first half of 2025.
Half of brewers are growing — barely
Despite the downturn, 49% of BA survey respondents reported production growth. Just 47% saw declines. Small breweries producing under 1,000 barrels per year fared best, with 50% seeing growth versus 43% experiencing contraction. The numbers suggest that hyperlocal models are proving more resilient. Taprooms and brewpubs make up 73% of all craft businesses, even though they represent just 15% of total volume. More Americans than ever are drinking craft beer — at least occasionally. According to Scarborough data, 9.8% of legal-age adults consumed craft beer in the past 30 days, up from 6.6% in 2013. However, frequency is down. Fewer drinkers are reaching for beer regularly, and economic pressures are influencing habits.
Midyear mirrors broader beverage struggles
The headwinds aren’t limited to craft. Per this article, the Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America reports a 4.2% volume decline for spirits and a 7.7% decline for wine over the past 12 months. According to NielsenIQ, craft beer’s 4.1% off-premise volume decline in 2025 is almost identical to the overall beer category’s drop of 4.2%. It’s a tough time across the board.
BPI: distributor demand still in freefall
The NBWA’s June 2025 Beer Purchasers’ Index shows little optimism from wholesalers. Craft beer posted a BPI score of 15 — well below the expansionary threshold of 50. That marks three years of deep contraction in the middle tier. For context, June 2024’s craft BPI score was 27. In April 2025, it was 20. In February, 17. The trend is unmistakable: distributors aren’t betting on craft. Craft brewers relying on wholesale must reconsider their approach. Taproom sales, local partnerships, and lean portfolios are key to staying afloat.
Beer shipments remain in decline
The Beer Institute’s taxable removals report shows total U.S. beer shipments down 5.9% year-to-date through May 2025. That’s nearly 3.7 million barrels fewer than the same period last year. May alone saw a 2.6% decline. January and February were worse, at -8.8% and -16.5%, respectively. For small brewers, these figures point to softened demand, tighter distributor interest, and potential overproduction risks. Adjusting schedules and inventory levels will be vital heading into the back half of the year.
NA beer: the bright spot
While traditional beer sales shrink, non-alcoholic beer keeps rising. Beer Institute data shows NA beer up 22.2% year-to-date and 16.4% over the past 12 months. The summer months are peak season, led by a 30.8% year-over-year surge in July 2024. On-premise growth is also impressive — up 26.4% in 2025.
Gen Z and Millennials are driving demand. According to recent surveys:
- 61% say they’d choose a non-alc version of their favorite beer.
- 57% say they’d stay longer at bars with solid NA options.
For craft brewers, the opportunity is clear. Non-alc beers offer a low-risk way to expand reach, innovate seasonally, and win shelf space in a shifting market.
Global brewing outlook adds perspective
The 2024/2025 BarthHaas Report confirms it’s not just a U.S. story. The top 40 global brewers saw production fall 0.6% last year. AB InBev, Heineken, and Snow Breweries all posted declines. Big brands are retrenching, regional assets are being sold off, and the market is consolidating. Still, some regional brewers surged. Martens in Belgium grew nearly 20%. Baltika, newly nationalized in Russia, jumped 15.7%. The takeaway? Nimble operators with regional focus are winning — a pattern mirrored in the U.S. craft space.
What craft brewers should do now
The data speaks plainly. Growth exists, but it’s hyperlocal. The middle tier is tightening, and drinkers are shifting habits — not necessarily abandoning beer, but drinking it less often and exploring new formats.
To survive and thrive, craft brewers should:
- Double down on taproom experiences and direct-to-consumer sales.
- Explore non-alcoholic beer and seasonal innovation.
- Stay lean on core SKUs and monitor distributor demand closely.
- Use data — not guesswork — to guide production and promotion.
The challenges are real, but the playbook is there. Local loyalty, flexible models, and creative brewing still win.
