The Beer Institute has released its July 2025 Taxable Removals Estimate, and the results show continued weakness in U.S. beer volumes. Domestic brewers shipped 12.63 million barrels in July, a 0.8% drop from July 2024’s 12.72 million barrels. While July’s decline is less severe than earlier months, the overall trend remains negative. Through the first seven months of 2025, taxable removals total 85.21 million barrels, down 4.6% compared to the same stretch in 2024. That’s more than 4 million fewer barrels shipped into the U.S. market this year.
Monthly trends remain soft
January through May each posted year-over-year losses between -2.6% and -16.4%. June briefly offered a 0.3% gain, the only positive month in 2025 so far. July quickly erased that momentum with its small dip, signaling that the industry has yet to find stability. The August 2025 estimate is scheduled for release on October 7.
What this means for craft brewers
Craft breweries don’t always track perfectly with Beer Institute taxable removals, which reflect all domestic beer shipments. Still, the numbers highlight broad market conditions that affect independent producers. Lower overall volumes suggest slower sales velocity. This can put pressure on distributors, who may reduce orders or hesitate to expand craft placements. Brewers relying on wholesale channels may feel this drag more sharply. Here’s all the numbers:
| Taxable Removals – TTB | ||||
| (31 Gallon Barrels) | ||||
| Month | 2024 | 2025 | Percent Change | Volume Change |
| January | 11,571,372 | 10,561,986 | -8.7% | -1,009,386 |
| February | 12,123,847 | 10,129,475 | -16.4% | -1,994,372 |
| March | 12,472,205 | 12,283,142 | -1.5% | -189,063 |
| April | 12,482,666 | 12,014,532 | -3.8% | -468,134 |
| May | 13,552,906 | 13,200,000 | -2.6% | -352,906 |
| June | 14,354,789 | 14,400,000 | 0.3% | 45,211 |
| July | 12,724,742 | 12,625,000 | -0.8% | -99,742 |
| YTD | 89,282,527 | 85,214,135 | -4.6% | -4,068,392 |
NBWA Beer Purchasers’ Index adds more context
The National Beer Wholesalers Association’s Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) helps explain why removals remain soft. For August 2025, the BPI dropped to 27, well below the 50 threshold that signals expansion. That means distributors expect lower demand heading into fall. Craft beer scored particularly poorly, with an index reading of 14 in August. This continues a trend of contractionary readings for the segment throughout 2025. Distributors remain cautious about taking on craft inventory, especially as overall beer sales struggle.
Piecing the data together
The Beer Institute’s removals show demand has not recovered in 2025. The NBWA’s BPI suggests distributors expect even leaner months ahead. For craft brewers, this combination points to tighter shelves, slower distributor buys, and the need for careful planning. Taproom sales, direct-to-consumer channels, and hyperlocal strategies may become even more important. With the national market shrinking and distributor demand softening, independent breweries will need to focus on efficiency, differentiation, and consumer connection to weather the second half of the year.
